Televised presentation by
Commander in Chief
Fidel Castro Ruz,
President of the Republic of Cuba,

on the present international situation,
the economic and world crisis and
its impact on Cuba.

Havana, November 2, 2001

My fellow countrymen:

At the opening of the Social Workers Training School in
Santiago de Cuba on October 24, I said that in the coming
days I would speak about the international economic
situation and how it could affect our country, which was
carrying out an unprecedented social development program as
it gradually recovered from the special period. I do not
want to put that discussion off any longer.

To characterize the current situation, one could say, by way
of a very brief summary, that in the mid-1990s, when
globalization was extending around the planet, the United
States, as the absolute masters of the international
financial institutions and through its immense political,
military and technological strength, achieved the most
spectacular accumulation of wealth and power ever seen in
history.

But the world and capitalist society were entering into an
entirely new phase. Only an insignificant part of economic
operations were related to world production and trade.

Every day three trillion dollars were involved in
speculative operations including currencies and stocks.
Stock prices on U.S. exchanges were rising like foam, often
with no relation whatsoever to the actual profits and
revenues of companies.

A number of myths were created: there would never be another
crisis; the system could regulate itself, because it had
created the mechanisms needed to advance and grow unimpeded.

The creation of purely imaginary wealth reached such an
extent that there were cases of stocks whose value increased
800 times in a period of only eight years, with an initial
investment of 1000 dollars. It was like an enormous balloon
that could inflate to infinity.

As this virtual wealth was created it was invested, spent
and wasted. Historical experience was completely ignored.
The world's population had quadrupled in only 100 years.
There were billions of human beings who neither participated
in nor enjoyed this wealth in any way whatsoever.

They supplied raw materials and cheap labor, but did not
consume and could not be consumers. They did not constitute
a market, nor the almost infinite sea fed by the immense
river of products that flowed, in the midst of fierce
competition, from factories that were ever more productive
and created ever fewer jobs, based in a privileged and
highly limited group of industrialized countries.

An elementary analysis was sufficient to comprehend that
this situation was unsustainable.

Nobody seemed to realize that any apparently insignificant
occurrence in the economy of one region of the world could
shake the entire structure of the world economy.

The architects, specialists and administrators of the new
international economic order, economists and politicians,
look on as their fantasy falls to pieces, yet they barely
understand that they have lost control of events. Other
forces are in control now. On the one hand, those of the
large and increasingly powerful and independent
transnationals and, on the other, the stubborn realities are
waiting for the world to truly change.

In July of 1997, the first major crisis of the globalized
neoliberal world erupts. The tigers fall to pieces. Japan
has still not managed to recover, and the world continues to
suffer the consequences. In August of 1998 comes the
so-called Russian crisis. Despite this country's
insignificant contribution to the worldwide gross domestic
product, barely 2%, the stock markets of the United States
were badly shaken, dropping by hundreds of points in a
matter of hours. In January of 1999, only five months later,
the Brazilian crisis breaks out.

An all-out joint effort by the G-7, IMF and World Bank was
needed to prevent the crisis from spreading throughout South
America and dealing a devastating blow to the U. S. stock
markets.

This time, the inevitable has happened: the crisis began in
the United States, almost imperceptibly at first. Beginning
in mid-2000, the first symptoms began to be observed, with a
sustained decrease in the rate of industrial production.

In March of that year, the so-called high-tech NASDAQ index
had already begun to drop.

At the same time, the trade deficit showed an enormous
growth, from 264.9 billion dollars in 1999 to 368.4 billion
in 2000.

In the second quarter of the year 2000, the gross domestic
product registered growth of 5.7%; in the third quarter, it
grew by only 1.3%. Industrial sector production began to
fall in October of 2000.

Nevertheless, at the end of the year 2000, opinions on the
prospects and forecasts for the world economy were still
rather optimistic. But reality soon reared its ugly head.

Since the beginning of 2001, the IMF, the World Bank, the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
and the European Commission, along with private
institutions, have been obliged to downwardly adjust their
growth predictions in the various regions of the world for
2001.

In May, the IMF forecast 3.2% worldwide growth in 2001. For
the United States in particular, projected growth was 1.5%,
and 2.4% for the eurozone. Japan was facing its fourth
recession in 10 years, leading to a prediction of 0.5%
negative growth for the same year.

IMF Managing Director Horst Kohler, during a speech to the
United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in
Geneva, on July 16, 2001, stated,

"Growth is slowing throughout the world. This may be
uncomfortable for the advanced economies (the developed and
wealthy countries), but it will be a further source of
hardship for many emerging markets and developing countries
(the poor and underdeveloped countries), and a real setback
in the fight against world poverty."

Production has dropped in the majority of the Southeast
Asian countries, with the exception of China, and in Latin
America, too. According to the World Bank, growth in
Southeast Asia, which had begun to recover after its
dramatic fall in 1997, would decline from 7.6% in 2000 to
4.5% this year, while Latin America's growth would be around
2%, one half of the growth registered in 2000.

Other institutions also made predictions. The Economist
magazine estimated in April that world growth in 2001 would
be only 2.7%, in contrast to the 4.6% growth registered in
the year 2000, while world trade would grow by 3.5%,
compared to the 13.4% growth in 2000.

With regard to the eurozone, the OECD, in is quarterly
report issued in early May of 2001, estimated that the
European Union would experience growth of 2.6%, a figure
0.5% lower than its initial projection.

On September 10, just one day before the events in New York
and Washington, the IMF analyzed the evolution of growth
predictions for the world economy and for the economies of
the United States, Europe and Japan. Its findings were as
follows:

World Economy - percentage of growth:
Autumn 2000 4.2
March 2001 3.4
Spring 2001 3.2
September 2001 2.7
A progressive fall from 4.2 to 2.7 in less than a year.

The United States:
Autumn 2000 3.2 March 2001 1.7
Spring 2001 1.5
September 2001 1.5
More of the same, from 3.2 to 1.5 over the same time period.

Japan:
Autumn 2000 1.8
March 2001 1.0
Spring 2001 0.6
September 2001 0.2
The numbers speak for themselves.

The Eurozone:
Autumn 2000 3.4
March 2001 2.7
Spring 2001 2.4
September 2001 1.9

Without exception, the three major centers of the world
economy saw their growth rates fall simultaneously, dropping
to less than half of initial figures over the course of less
than a year. In the case of Japan in particular, growth
dropped to almost zero.

The employment situation:
At the end of the year 2000, the unemployment rate in the
United States was only 3.9%. What happened in the year 2001?

Unemployment rate (percentage):
February 4.2
March 4.3
April 4.5
May 4.4
June 4.5
July 4.5
August 4.9

Although official statistics are not yet available, it is
estimated that unemployment has now reached 5.1%, a rate
that had not been registered in the United States for many
years.

Today, November 2, after this material had been drafted, the
official figure was released: it is 5.4%. In just one month,
415 thousand jobs were lost.

The increase of the unemployment rate is irrefutable
evidence of the deterioration that the U.S. economy had been
suffering prior to the terrorist attacks.

It should be kept in mind, as an important precedent, that
over the last 50 years, when the unemployment rate has
reached 5.1%, this has coincided with the beginning of a
recession.

Percentage of industrial capacity used
in the United States in the year 2001:

February 79.2
March 78.7
April 78.4
May 78.0
June 77.1
July 77.0
August 76.4

In August, industrial production fell by 0.6% as compared to
July. Over the previous 12 months, industrial production had
shrunk by around 5%. August was the 11th consecutive month
of economic contraction. The figure registered in August is
very close to the lowest level reached since 1983.

Also registered in the month of August of 2001 was a budget
deficit of 80 billion dollars.

That same month, Democratic members of Congress were already
pointing that predictions indicated that the government
would have to use social security money to finance current
expenditures.

During the second quarter of 2001, U.S. imports shrank by
13.9 billion dollars, while the low level of trade activity
in the rest of the world led to a 9.1 billion-dollar
reduction in exports.

Stock values on the main indexes have
suffered the following decreases in 2001:
Dow Jones 18.06%
NASDAQ 66.42%
Standard and Poor's (S&P) 28.48%

This means the loss of trillions of dollars in less than a
year.

The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates nine times in
2001. The goal in doing so is to lower the cost of money,
boost consumer confidence and thus promote economic
activity. This frantic frequency clearly reflects
desperation.

Europe:
Industrial production in the European region experienced a
sustained decline in the first quarter of the year 2001 that
obliged companies to reduce staff, and this, in turn,
reduced consumption, thus creating a vicious downward
circle.

Investment and consumption are depressed, aggravating the
trend towards recession.

The European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs has stated
that the European economy will grow by only 1.5% this year.
Meanwhile, the six most prestigious economic research
institutes in Germany have predicted that their country's
economy will grow by 0.7% this year and 1.3% next year, and
announced that the German economy is on the verge of a
recession. This will have a strong negative impact on the
rest of Europe, given that Germany is considered the
region's "economic motor."

Japan:
Japan's real gross domestic product in the first quarter of
the year 2001 dropped more dramatically than expected, with
a decrease of 0.2% as compared to predictions of 0.1%,
followed by an additional 0.8% drop in the second quarter.

The decrease in industrial production that began in March
reached 11.7% by August. This phenomenon of six consecutive
months of decline in industrial production has not been
witnessed in the Japanese economy since the period from
December of 1991 to May of 1992, and it places industrial
production at the lowest level of the last seven years. This
means an even worse crisis than the financial crisis of
1997-1998, according to Japanese analysts.

Japan's trade surplus decreased 48% in July of this year. As
a defensive measure, companies are cutting staff, leading to
a rise in the unemployment rate, which reached an all-time
high of 5% in August of this year, something never before
seen in Japan.

Latin America
In August, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean (ECLAC) reported that the region's economy would
grow by only 2% in 2001, a mere half of the growth
registered the previous year (4%). In so doing, it retracted
its prior prediction, made in May, forecasting a GDP growth
of between 2.7% and 3%.

According to ECLAC, this is the result of the worldwide
economic weakening and instability in a number of the
region's key countries:

Peru and Uruguay will experience no growth; Brazil has been
affected by a scarcity of fuel supplies, which has hit its
productive activity, and by an almost 40% devaluation of its
currency this year; and Chile's economic reactivation has
come to a halt.

In the case of Mexico, a feeble economic growth of 0.13% is
predicted for this year, and 1.74% for 2002. The government
had originally forecast 4.5% growth in the gross domestic
product for 2001, but it has downscaled that figure a number
of times due to the slowdown in the world economy, and
particularly that of the United States. ECLAC estimates that
unemployment in the region will reach at least 8.5%.

There are people who calmly speak today about the "world
economic crisis caused by the terrorist attacks that took
place in the United States on September 11 and by the war
against Afghanistan initiated on October 7." Such statements
are completely baseless. What I have just outlined
irrefutably proves this. The crisis was already breaking
out, uncontrollably.

Every week I receive a bulletin with the most important
economic news gathered from the most prestigious and
reliable public sources of information, or statements made
by specialists and political leaders.

I remember in particular the bulletin I received on
September 8, 2001, exactly three days before the terrible
tragedy in New York. It had been many years since I had read
so much bad news about the prospects for the international
economy in just one bulletin.

Curiosity led me to look it over once again. I have chosen a
number of reports from it, which read as follows:

"Hitachi Ltd., Japan's biggest manufacturer of electronic
products, announced that it will cut 14,700 jobs this year,
or 4% of its staff, while preparing for a loss of over a
billion dollars caused by the collapse of the high-tech
sector."

"Rival Japanese conglomerates Toshiba Corp., NEC Corp. and
Fujitsu Ltd. have also announced that they plan to cut
thousands of jobs." (CNN, 31/08/2001)

"The president of the United States Federal Reserve said
that the rise in housing prices, at the same time that the
stock market has collapsed, is making it difficult for the
central bank to diagnose the state of the country's economy.
This divergence 'could have significant implications' for
the country's economic growth, he declared. (The Wall Street
Journal, 31/08/2001)

"The U.S. Federal Reserve has warned in its latest report to
the country's banking institutions that they have not
reinforced their risk management systems to the extent
demanded by the economic slowdown facing the international
economy." (Spanish newspaper Cinco Días, 31/08/2001)

"The European Commission admitted yesterday that the
prediction for economic growth in the eurozone this year
will be less than 2.5%. The monetary affairs commissioner,
Pedro Solbes, who even noted that Brussels has "some doubts"
about this figure, acknowledged this. The drop in rates by a
quarter of a point, announced last week by the president of
the European Central Bank (ECB), was accompanied by an
explicit acknowledgement of an error in calculation. 'What
we have underestimated is how long and severe the slowdown
has turned out to be in the United States,' Duisenberg said.
'If I may say so, we, and also the United States
authorities, have tended to be too optimistic regarding the
duration and depth of the slowdown,' he said, recalling the
opinions of Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill.

"The ECB's orientation difficulties are contained in this
brief analysis, which comes a bit late after the gradual
reduction from the 3.2% growth in the eurozone predicted in
January to the 2% estimated in recent days." (Spanish
newspaper Cinco Días, 31/08/2001)

"The president of the United States acknowledged his concern
over the persistent decline in U.S. economic activity and
its repercussions on the labor market. I am aware of the
problems being faced today by the families of workers
affected by the economic crisis, but I am convinced that the
economy will get back on its feet, he declared before a
meeting of trade union groups.

"With the economy on the brink of a recession, the president
tried to convince U.S. workers that he was aware of their
situation and that he is doing something to remedy it. The
matter is complicated, given that the weakening of consumer
confidence, the decline in financial markets and the
lukewarm growth of the major world power have placed
economic affairs at the top of the president's agenda."
(Spanish newspaper Expansión, 04/09/2001)

Note that President Bush, who is not very partial to these
subjects, made these declarations one week before September
11.

"Growth is practically arrested in Latin America, according
to first-quarter figures on the gross domestic product.

"The balance for 2001 will show a new drop in per capita
gross domestic product in the region, asserted the Banco
Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria in its latest report on Latin
America. The bank has lowered its prediction of growth in
this group of countries from an initial 3.9% down to 1%, a
rate that fails to match population growth.

"The reasons for this more pessimistic view are to be found
in a world economic slowdown greater than estimated at the
beginning of the year."

"The feeble growth of the main economies has translated into
a heavy reduction in external demand and, as a result, in
Latin American exports as well.

"The Mexican economy has been the hardest hit by the
consequences, given its high degree of dependence on
industrial activity in the United States. Its growth this
year will be limited to 0.2%, according to the bank, as
compared with the 6.9% growth registered in 2000." (Spanish
newspaper Cinco Días, 04/09/2001)

"The number of layoffs announced in the United States has
already surpassed one million so far this year, despite the
fact that the pace of cutbacks was curbed in August. In all,
U.S. companies announced plans to eliminate 140,0199 jobs
that month, which was 32% less than the total for July, but
over double the cuts registered in August of 2000. As a
result, the sum total for the first eight months of the year
reached 1,120,000 jobs eliminated, a number 83% greater that
the total cuts in the year 2000. The telecommunications
sector continues to be the hardest hit, with 19% of jobs in
the sector eliminated so far this year." (Spanish newspaper
Cinco Días, 05/09/2001)

"The serious budgetary difficulties in Germany and Italy and
less severe difficulties in Spain are joined by those of
France, whose cash deficit rose by 16% in the first five
months of the year." (Spanish newspaper Expansión,
05/09/2001)

"German Minister of the Economy Werner Müller admitted that
growth in the gross domestic product of the German giant
will not reach 1.5% this year. Up until now he had only
admitted that growth would be 'under 2%'. Müller's
declarations will act as a further bucket of cold water for
those who had predicted a swift recovery for the German
economy." (Spanish newspaper Cinco Días, 05/09/2001)

"While U.S. industry was beginning to give off positive
signs of recovery, it is now the service sector that is
responsible for throwing a new bucket of cold water on
expectations. Activity in the service sector declined once
again in August, according to figures from the National
Association of Purchasing Managers. The monthly index of
activity dropped from 48.9 points in July to 45.5 points in
August, which represents the second consecutive month below
the 50-point level, considered the dividing line between
recession and growth. In August there was a sharp drop in
new orders, indicating a serious decline in activity for the
coming months. The figure far exceeded the predictions of
analysts who expected a minimum reduction to 48 points at
most." (Spanish newspaper Cinco Días, 06/09/2001)

"According to figures from the International Monetary Fund,
between 500 billion and a trillion and a half dollars a
year - between 1.5% and 4.5% of worldwide gross domestic
product - generated by illegal activities are laundered
through the banking system." (Spanish newspaper El País,
06/09/2001)

"The Central Bank of the United Kingdom recently cut its
prediction for gross domestic product growth in 2001 to 2%,
the lowest level since the recession in the early 90s."
(Spanish newspaper Cinco Días, 06/09/2001)

"Moody's, a rating agency specializing in risk assessment
and considered a world leader in this area, warned yesterday
of the possibility of lowering the rating of Japanese
sovereign bonds."

"Today the gross domestic product figure for the second
quarter of the year will be announced, and analysts'
predictions point to a drop of between 0.9% and 1%. If this
is the case, the economy would technically enter a recession
after a 0.2% fall in gross domestic product between January
and March. The figure raises questions about the future of
the world's second economy in the context of a slowdown
heightened by the weakness of the United States." (Spanish
newspaper Cinco Días, 07/09/2001)

As can be seen, the economic crisis is not a consequence of
the September 11 attacks and the war against Afghanistan.
Such claims could only be made out of total ignorance or an
attempt to hide the real cause. The crisis is a consequence
of the resounding and irreversible failure of an economic
and political conception imposed on the world: neoliberalism
and neoliberal globalization.

The terrorist attacks and the war did not give rise to the
crisis, but they have considerably aggravated it. What had
already been rapidly advancing was abruptly and untimely
boosted even further. Humanity must now confront three
extremely serious problems, which feed off of one another:
terrorism, the war and the economic crisis.

The economic crisis also means the aggravation of major
problems that are far from being solved: poverty, hunger and
disease, which kill tens of millions of people in the world
every year; illiteracy, lack of education, unemployment, and
the exploitation of millions of children through child labor
and prostitution; the trafficking and consumption of drugs,
which mobilizes and absorbs hundreds of billions of dollars;
money laundering; the lack of drinking water; the scarcity
of housing, hospitals, communications, schools and
educational facilities. The crucial rights of all human
beings are affected.

The crisis will have an especially negative impact on the
struggle for sustainable development, the preservation of
the environment and the protection of nature from the
merciless destruction to which it is being subjected, and
which is causing the poisoning of the waters and the
atmosphere, the destruction of the ozone layer,
deforestation, desertification, and the extinction of
animals and plants. How could this possibly not be taken
into the slightest account?

There are nations and even entire regions on some continents
that could be annihilated if terrifying plagues like AIDS
are not urgently combated and defeated by humankind; and if
terrorism, war and the economic crisis are not resolutely
confronted. Now is the time when cooperation among all
countries is needed more than ever before.

Although it is essential to return to this theme before I
finish my presentation, I would first like to explain how
the current international situation and the economic crisis
are influencing and will undoubtedly continue to influence
our own country.

The economic crisis had already been affecting some of our
main sources of convertible currency.

The most direct immediate consequences: the price of sugar
on the world market has fallen from 9 to 6.53 cents a pound;
the price of nickel, another export line in which production
had increased alongside a reduction in costs and fuel
expenditures, dropped from 8.64 dollars to 4.715 dollars a
ton; sales of tobacco, another of our most important export
products, are declining in all markets. The crisis has also
limited other exports of goods and services that were being
developed.

Direct consequences of the terrorist
attacks and the war unleashed

Despite the world economic crisis that was developing and
the rise in airfares resulting from increased fuel costs, we
had received a total of 1,304, 597 tourists as of August 31
this year. This represented growth of 7.8% in comparison
with the same period last year, when 1,200,076 tourists were
received.

The number of visitors staying in tourism industry
facilities grew by 11.3%.

In September, the total number of visitors decreased, in
only 20 days, by 9.9% in comparison with the same month last
year. It is estimated that the decrease for the month of
October will reach 14%. Varadero and the city of Havana, the
country's two most important tourist destinations, are also
the most affected.

The goal of receiving a total of two million tourists was
feasible, and the first million was reached three weeks
earlier than last year, during the first quarter. Now the
growth achieved will likely be only 3% to 6%.

The blow dealt to the Caribbean after September 11 was even
more severe. They depended more on tourism from the United
States. There have been other negative effects resulting
from the causes mentioned above and from other causes aside
from terrorism and the war: The possibility of obtaining
credits has been reduced due to the reduction in our
convertible currency income.

We have financial obligations that must be met despite the
reduction in convertible currency income.

Foreign exchange bureaus Cuba's foreign exchange bureaus
(known by the acronym CADECA) felt an immediate effect as
soon as the bombing started.

To allow for a fuller understanding, I need to explain that
during the most difficult moments of the special period, the
depreciation of our currency, the Cuban peso, led the
exchange rate to 150 pesos to the dollar. The measures
adopted and the creation of the CADECAs improved the rate to
20 pesos to the dollar. This brought major benefits to the
population: their money rose in value, and all the people
were given access to stores operating in convertible
currency.

Over the course of more than five years, our country
achieved an unprecedented feat, unique in the world: despite
the blockade and the economic war, it managed to maintain a
stable exchange rate for its currency, with minor
fluctuations in one direction or the other.

The bank always obtained a small difference in its favor,
because the CADECAs met with a greater supply of dollars for
pesos than the supply of pesos for our convertible pesos
[equivalent in value to U.S. dollars within Cuba].

The difference obtained was devoted entirely to acquiring
raw materials sold in convertible currency in order to
manufacture products for sale to the population in Cuban
pesos, from French bread to brand-name beer, along with many
other products. The national currency funds thus recovered
served in turn to maintain the stability of the peso-dollar
exchange rate.

Then the situation was reversed: the supply of dollars
decreased and the demand for convertible pesos increased.
For 20 consecutive days, with the exception of three, the
bank supplied more dollars than it received. The adverse
balance reached almost four million dollars.

The CADECAs operate on the principle of supply and demand;
it can be no other way. As a result, the peso began to
decline in value. At one point, the exchange rate reached 28

pesos to the convertible peso in a number of provinces.

Three days ago it stabilized at 26 pesos to the convertible
peso; convertible pesos are equivalent in value to U.S.
dollars and can be immediately changed into U.S. dollars
upon request.

The peso, in these circumstances, lost 18.18% of its value.
This is a situation that must be monitored closely. At the
moment, the country should not take any risks with its
convertible currency resources. It is our duty to inform our
people, so that they may adopt the decisions they deem most
advisable under any given circumstances. At times when the
situation calls for the devaluation of the peso, they should
not let themselves be influenced by the advice of
speculators or by fear.

It should not be forgotten that the Revolution, in such
difficult conditions as those prevailing in 1994, succeeded
in bringing about the decrease in the exchange rate from 150
pesos to the dollar to 20 to the dollar, and it kept this
rate relatively stable for many years. The population has
the possibility of making term deposits in pesos, which pay
an interest rate of 7.5% annually, triple the interest paid
on accounts in dollars, and 50% more than the interest paid
on convertible pesos.

In the end, the Revolution will win this battle against the
consequences of the international economic crisis as well,
no matter how serious that crisis becomes, and its currency
will eventually increase in value once again.

The Revolution, with all its moral authority, guarantees all
citizens:

1. That the CADECAs will not be closed

2. That all bank deposits, whether in regular Cuban pesos,
convertible pesos or dollars, will be absolutely respected.

3. That the stores that sell goods in convertible currency,
and to which everyone has access, to a greater or lesser
extent, in accordance with their income in one currency or
the other, will not be closed.

4. That the farmers' markets will remain open.

5. That the value of the Cuban peso will be resolutely
defended. The prices of goods and services currently offered
to the population at official prices, whether rationed or
not, will not go up by a single cent. In accordance with
this policy, the only prices that may vary are those in the
farmers markets, for obvious reasons, since they operate on
the basis of supply and demand, and those in the state-run
farmers markets, which should use the regular farmers
markets as a point of reference, but maintain lower prices,
depending on the resources available to us. The prices in
convertible currency stores may vary as well, as they always
have.

6. The prices of the 700,000 Chinese television sets that
will be distributed and sold to the population in national
currency will be calculated at the exchange rate of 20 pesos
to the dollar, as was previously established. They will be
paid for in the installments agreed upon, with no interest
charges whatsoever.

We have not lived through ten years of the special period in
vain. Today, of course, the main concern of our people and
the planet as a whole is the preservation of peace, because
without peace, the world would be headed towards a fatal
abyss. And we will struggle for peace with the same courage,
honor and dignity as we always have.

We will confront the economic crisis successfully. No
sacrifice intimidates us, not even the sacrifice of our
lives. This is very well known. We have endured all manners
of sacrifices for many years. Those who thought the
Revolution would only last a matter of weeks now admire our
heroic capacity to resist and move forward.

Many pages could be filled with accounts of the feats we
have achieved. We need only mention a few:

* Before the special period, out of every peso invested, 80
cents were exploited, and that figure fell to 50 cents in
1994; today it stands at 91 cents. In 1994, it took
approximately 12 days to build one hotel room; in 2000, the
time was reduced to 2.2 days.

* The budget deficit has been maintained at less than 3% of
the gross domestic product over the last five years, after
reaching 33.5% in 1993.

* Labor productivity has increased by 19%. Almost 75% of the
growth in the economy has resulted from this factor.

* The tourism sector has experienced an eight-fold increase
in income and a fivefold increase in the number of tourists.
This has been achieved by merely tripling the number of
hotel rooms and doubling the number of workers.

* Oil production, which totaled 500,000 tons at the
beginning of the special period, has now risen to the
equivalent of 3.6 million tons, between oil and natural gas.
We will not hesitate to invest in this area. Next year we
will surpass the figure of four million tons. For each ton
of Cuban oil and natural gas used in electrical power
production and other industries, the country saves 60% of
the price in convertible currency.

* Production levels today are the same or much higher in
comparison with 1989 in sectors like tourism, manufacturing
for the domestic convertible-currency market, electrical
power generation, nickel, vegetable crops, citrus fruits,
pharmaceuticals, cigars for export, and others. The same
holds true for results in education, health care, culture,
sports and science.

* The daily per capita calorie intake rose from 1948
calories in 1994 to 2578 last year, while the protein intake
went from 47.7 grams to 68.3 grams in the same period.

* The average monthly salary, which was 185 pesos in 1994,
should reach 242 pesos by the end of the year, while the
average income, which includes monetary incentives and other
forms of payment in kind, will reach 373 pesos.

* In the state-funded public sector, 82% of workers, or
1,091,200 workers in all, have received raises in their
salaries.

* In the self-financing enterprise sector, 73.3% of workers,
or 1,322,000 workers, are paid according to performance.

* Over 1.2 million workers are eligible for
performance-based incentives in convertible Cuban pesos or
their equivalent.

* The farmers markets, from their emergence in 1994, reduced
their prices by 84%. The state-run farmers markets, which
now extend throughout the country, and charge lower average
prices than the regular farmers markets, have served to curb
price increases in the latter.

* Unemployment, which rose to 8% in the worst years of the
special period, was reduced to 5.4% in 2000. The differences
among regions in this regard are a focus of special
attention.

* In 1994 there were power cuts on 344 days, almost every
day of the year, and 1.2 million MW of energy were not
provided due to a power deficit; last year, there were power
cuts on only 77 days, with 64,000 MW not provided.

* Residential power consumption grew by 16% in the last few
years. That growth could have been 25% if the energy-saving
program had not been implemented.

* There is greater protection of the environment today, with
a decrease in all types of pollution (of the soil, water and
air). Economic growth has not been achieved at the cost of
destroying the environment, but instead has contributed to
improving it, in line with sustainable development.

* The percentage of the population with access to drinking
water rose from 82% to 94%, with over 1.2 million people
benefiting from the construction of water supply systems in
2454 rural communities. Almost all of the country's water is
chlorinated.

* A natural gas program is underway, and since the end of
1998, it has benefited over a million people in 268,209
households, who can now cook with bottled gas instead of
kerosene.

* The telephone expansion program that began in 1999 has
provided 146,750 new telephone lines so far.

* All public telephones have been changed to digital phones.
In 1999, there were 11,860 public telephones, and that
number had risen to 18,000 by the end of the year 2000. A
further 4700 will be installed this year.

* Some 320,000 new homes have been built in the last five
years, benefiting over 1.2 million people.

* Social security and social protection services have been
guaranteed for the most vulnerable sectors.

* During these 10 years of the special period, over 17
billion pesos have been paid out in pensions.

There is no need for me to talk about the battle of ideas
and the colossal social project that you all know about,
which is leading us towards a much more fair and improved
socialism, and towards the goal of becoming the most
educated and cultured people in the world. Suffice it to say
that it encompasses 70 programs and hundreds of tasks, with
several of the most important already completed.

Some future dreams will have to wait, but these will be
fulfilled. The most important investments have already been
made, and were minimal. The fundamental role has been played
and will continue to be played by the immense human capital
of our people.

Today we are politically more united and stronger than ever.
We are much better prepared to confront this situation. Our
social justice will allow us to protect all our people.
There is greater organization in our political and
grassroots institutions, our State and our Government.

Our enterprise sector is improving; we have learned to
produce with fewer resources, greater efficiency and greater
discipline.

We are aware of what has been happening in the world to
those who have renounced socialism and implemented
neoliberal policies.

We have a people who are steadily becoming ever more
cultured, more conscientious, and better prepared in every
sense.

At the beginning of the special period, our socialist
ideology had suffered a terrible blow. Today, the terrible
blow has been dealt to the ideology of our adversary,
through a profound economic and ideological crisis.

I noted earlier that before concluding, I would return to
the issue of terrorism, the war and the international
economic crisis.

Although we have made our stance known, I think it would be
worthwhile to recall that on September 11, just hours after
the events, and having expressed our total condemnation of
the brutal attack and our sincere and selfless solidarity
with the people of the United States - since we never asked
for nor expected anything in return - we expressed a
conviction that we continue to hold today, with more
strength and certainty than ever:

"None of the present problems of the world can be solved by
force. [...] The international community should build a
world conscience against terrorism. [...] Only the
intelligent policy of seeking strength through consensus and
the international public opinion can decidedly uproot this
problem [...] this unimaginable event should serve to launch
an international struggle against terrorism. [...] The world
cannot be saved unless a path of international peace and
cooperation is pursued."

A week later, in San Antonio de los Baños, I declared on
behalf of our people, "Whatever happens (that is to say,
whether or not there is a war), the territory of Cuba will
never be used for terrorist actions against the American
people."

I added something else: "We will do everything within our
reach to prevent such actions against that people. Today we
are expressing our solidarity while urging to peace and
calmness. One day they will admit we were right."

A week later, on September 29, at the Revolutionary Mass
Rally held in Ciego de Avila, I continued to stress our
points of view:

"Nevertheless, no one should be misled into thinking that
the peoples of the world, and a number of honest political
leaders, will not react as soon as the war actions become a
reality and their horrific images start to be seen. These
will then take the place of the sad and shocking images of
the events in New York at a time when forgetting them would
bring irreparable damage on the spirit of solidarity with
the American people that is today a primary element towards
the eradication of terrorism, without the need to resort to
a war of unpredictable consequences and avoiding the death
of an incalculable number of innocents.

"The first victims can already be seen. They are the
millions trying to escape the war and the dying children
with ghastly appearance whose images will move the world to
pity without anyone being able to prevent their
dissemination."

The events that have been taking place make it increasingly
clear how right we were.

An editorial in Granma, the official newspaper of our
Communist Party, published on October 8, just hours after
the war had been unleashed, stated:

"It is not a war against terrorism; [...] it is a war in
favor of terrorism, since the military operations will make
it more complicated and difficult to eradicate it. It is
like pouring oil on the flame.

"From now on, there will be a real avalanche of news about
bombs, missiles, air strikes, the advance of armored
vehicles with troops of ethnic groups allied with the
invaders, the dropping of paratroops or the ground advance
of elite forces of the attacking countries. Rather soon,
there will be news about occupied cities, the capital
included, and TV images of whatever censure permits or
escapes control. The fight will be against the people of
that country and not against the terrorists. There are no
battalions or armies of terrorists. This is a sinister
concept and an insidious method of struggle against a
ghost."

After 26 days of relentless bombing, those who have been
following events from day to day can see that what has
happened up until now is exactly as we predicted.

The war began inexorably. We knew that it was extremely
unlikely, practically impossible, that it would not happen.
Nevertheless, this has not led us, either before or after,
to become discouraged or renounce our stance.

We insisted that it was necessary to fight against terrorism
and against the war. A spirit of revenge or hatred against
America never led us. It was with sadness that I meditated
on the mistake that, in my view, was being made but I never
uttered an insult or a personal offense.

I have often said to those involved in this battle of ideas
that there is no need to personally offend anyone. I rather
enumerate facts, avoid adjectives, and analyze with cool
head and wage arguments. That preserves our moral authority
and prevents anyone from questioning the strength and
sincerity of our position.

Presently, I am afraid that if the possibility existed to
defeat terrorism without a war, through cooperation and with
the unanimous support of all the international community
leading to truly efficient measures and to the building of a
strong moral conscience against terrorism, that possibility
tends to fade away with every passing day.

The worst would be to come to a point when it would no
longer be possible to find a solution that way because I see
it ever more clearly that it is absurd and impossible to try
to resolve this through war. I try to imagine what was going
through the minds of the American political and military
strategists; maybe they thought that a colossal deployment
of forces would crush the will of the Taliban; perhaps, they
were hopeful that an initial devastating blow would attain
that objective.

Everybody knows the estimates made by NATO during the war
against Yugoslavia. The idea was that the objectives would
be accomplished in 5 days, but almost 80 days passed and it
had not happened. It is also a known fact that despite the
extraordinary display of technology and means, the Serbian
army was practically intact. The envoys of Russia and
Finland had to weight heavily to "persuade" the adversary
through diplomatic channels when the time had come to fight
on the ground, something that the members of the coalition
were not particularly fond of.

I do not share the view that the United States' main pursuit
in Afghanistan was oil. I rather see it as part of a
geo-strategic concept. No one would make such a mistake
simply to go after oil, least of all a country with access
to any oil in the world, including all the Russian oil and
gas it wishes. It would be sufficient for the U.S. to
invest, to buy and to pay.

Based on its privileges, the United States can even purchase
it by minting reserve bonds on a 30 years maturity span.
That is how, throughout more than 80 years, it has bought
products and services accounting for over 6.6 trillion
dollars.

Military actions in Afghanistan
are fraught with dangers.

That is an extremely troubled area where two large countries
have fought several wars. There are profound national and
religious antagonisms between them. The population of the
disputed territory is mostly Islamic. As the tempers grow
frail, a war might break out; and both countries have
nuclear capability. That risk is as serious as the
destabilization of the Pakistani government by the war. That
government is being placed in a highly complicated position.
The Taliban emerged there, and they share the same Pashtun
ethnicity with an undetermined number of Pakistanis, in
fact, no less than 10 million; and I have chosen the most
conservative figure among those that have been mentioned.
They also share with fanatic passion the same religious
beliefs.

The U.S. military are usually well versed in their trade. I
have met some when, after retirement, they have visited Cuba
as scholars. They write books, tell stories and make
political analyses. I was then not surprised by the
information released by The New Yorker magazine of October
29 in the sense that there was a contingency plan to seize
the Pakistani nuclear warheads, in case a radical group took
over the government of that country.

It was absolutely impossible for the American strategists to
overlook that substantial risk. Every bomb dropped on
Afghanistan, every picture of dead children or people dying
or suffering from terrible wounds, tend to compound that
risk. What is hard to imagine is the reaction of those
responsible for protecting those weapons, to a plan that is
by now of public domain as much as Chronicle of a Death
Foretold by Gabriel García Marquez.

I am not aware of something the U.S. Special Services should
know only too well, that is, where and how those nuclear
warheads are kept and the way in which they are protected. I
try to imagine -and it is not easy-- how such an action
could be conducted by elite troops. Perhaps, one day someone
might tell how it could be done. But, still, I find it hard
to imagine the political scenario in the aftermath of such
an action when the fight would be against over 100 million
additional Muslims. The U.S. government has denied the
existence of such contingency plan. It was to be expected.
It could not do otherwise.

The most logical question that crosses my mind is whether
the heads of governments and statesmen who are friends of
the United States and have a longstanding political and
practical experience did not see these potential dangers,
and why they did not warn the United States and tried to
persuade it. Obviously, America's friends fear it but do not
appreciate it.

It is always difficult to try to guess when it comes to
these issues. But, there is something of which I am
absolutely certain: it would be sufficient if 20 or 30
thousand men used clever methods of irregular warfare, the
same that the United States wants to use there, and that
struggle could last 20 years. It is completely impossible to
subdue the Afghan adversary in an irregular warfare on that
country's ground with bombs and missiles, whatever the
caliber and the power of these weapons.

They have already been through the hardest psychological
moments. They have lost everything: family, housing, and
properties. They have absolutely nothing else they can lose.
Nothing seems to indicate that they will surrender their
weapons, even if their most notable leaders were killed.

The use of tactical weapons, which some have suggested,
would have the effect of multiplying by one hundred that
mistake and with it unbearable criticism and universal
isolation. Therefore, I have never believed that the leaders
of that country have seriously considered such tactics, not
even when they were most enraged.

These are simply my thoughts that I am expressing to you. I
think the way to show solidarity with the American people
that lost thousands of innocent lives, including those of
children, youths and elders, men and women to the outrageous
attack, is by frankly speaking out our minds. The sacrifice
of those lives should not be in vain, but rather it should
be useful to save many lives, to prove that thinking and
conscience can be stronger than terror and death.

We are not suggesting that any crime committed on Earth
should be left unpunished, I simply do not have elements of
judgement to accuse anyone in particular.

But, if the culprits were those that the U.S. government is
trying to punish and remove, there is no doubt that the way
in which they are doing it will lead to the creation of
altars where the alleged murderers will be worshiped as
saints by millions of men and women.

It would be better to build an enormous altar to Peace where
Humankind can pay homage to all the innocent victims of
blind terror and violence, be it an American or an Afghan
child. This is said by somebody who considers himself an
adversary of the United States' policies but not an enemy of
that country, one who believes to have an idea of human
history, psychology and justice.

Having come to this point there is
only one more issue left to discuss.

What is happening with the anthrax is absolutely
incomprehensible. Real and sincere panic has been created.
The stocks of medications to fight that bacterium are being
depleted. Many people are buying gas masks and other
devices, some of which cost thousands of dollars.

Extravagant behavior can cause more damage than the disease.
When there is an outbreak of any disease, whatever the
cause, it is essential to warn the people and to provide
information on the illness and the measures that should be
taken to prevent it, diagnose it and fight it.

Diseases are carried from one country to another in natural

ways, that is, through people, animals, plants, food,
insects, commercial products and a thousand other ways,
without the need for anyone to produce them in laboratories.
That is how it has been historically. That is the reason for
so many public-health regulations.

The chaos and the psychological reaction to anthrax have
turned the American society into a hostage of those who want
to hurt it, knowing beforehand that they will sow terror. On
numerous occasions our country has had to face up to new
diseases affecting people, plantations and herds, many of
them deliberately introduced. No wonder our country has
graduated 67,128 medical doctors and thousands of
technicians in plant and animal health. Our people know what
should be immediately done in such cases.

No other country in the world compares with the United
States in the number of research centers, laboratories and
medications, or the capacity to produce them or purchase
them, to fight that or any other disease. In the face of
real or imaginary risk, either current or future, there is
no other choice but to educate the people to cope with them.
This is what the Cubans have done.

The causes that gave rise to panic should be analyzed.
Certainly, it could not be said that the United States is
not in risk of terrorist actions. However, I do not believe
that under the present circumstances of generalized
alertness, and the measures taken, any group inside or
outside America could come up with a coordinated action,
organized in every detail for a long time, synchronized and
executed with such precision as that of September 11.

In my view the main risk may lie with individual actions, or
actions carried out by very few people from inside or
outside America that could cause lesser or greater damage.
None can be underestimated.

But as important as the preventive measures that should be
taken to tackle such risks, or even more important, is to
psychologically disarm the potential perpetrators. And these
include those who might want to do it out of political
extremism, vengeance or hatred, or a significant number of
people who are frustrated, unstable or deranged who might
feel tempted by the spectacular or by wishes to be the main
actors of well-known events. They could drive the American
people mad by sending mail with or without anthrax.

Everything possible should be done to put an end to panic,
extravaganza and chaos, then danger will be reduced.

In Cuba we have also seen the arrival and circulation of
letters and postcards with strange powders and other things.
One hundred and sixteen of them were detected from 15 to 31
October. 72 were coming from abroad: 36 from the United
States, 8 from Great Britain, 3 from Canada, 2 from the
Checkia Republic, 2 from Spain, 2 from The Netherlands, 1
from Denmark, 1 from Chile and 1 from the Arab Emirates. Of
these letters 25 were addressed to me. I thank the senders
for their kindness.

Our laboratory staffs are becoming real experts. Thirty-one
originated within the country and circulated here, several
were no more than bad jokes. Five were being sent from Cuba
to other countries: 2 to the United States, 1 to Pakistan, 1
to Italy and 1 to Costa Rica. In eight cases it has not been
possible to determine where they have come from.

Out of the 116 letters that have been examined, except for
24 that are still under analysis, no biological agent has
been found. Not one worker in our postal services, the
offices in the Palace [of the Revolution] or the
laboratories has been contaminated. We are all in good
health. There was no sensationalism, no scandal, no alarm or
panic. No one purchased gas masks or medications. I am
telling you the story simply to illustrate what I said about
how incomprehensible it is what has happened with the
anthrax in America.

Even if a bacterium had been introduced here, there would be
no panic and everybody would know what to do. But, it would
certainly be very difficult for a letter to go out from Cuba
to another country carrying viruses or bacteria. We are
pleased to know that the two letters addressed to the United
States did not leave our country, neither did the others
that were supposed to get to other countries.

And thus we will cooperate with every people in the world.
Our doctors and other specialists as well as our
technicians, research centers and our modest experience will
be available in the struggle against biological
bio-terrorism and other forms of terror.

It is clear by now that America's friends fear it but do not
appreciate it. Cuba is not in the least fearful of the
enormous power of that nation, but it can appreciate its
people.

Thank you, very much.


===========================
This is theEnglish text of Fidel's talk last night on
Cuban television. Since it's over 9000 words long,
it's now been reformatted for ease of readability
by separating paragraphs. It's twelve pages long.
Go here to FILES to print out your own copy.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/change-links/files/